Trump Has Better Shot Of Beating Biden Than His GOP Rivals Claim

Although former President Donald Trump’s primary rivals often claim that he would have no chance of winning the general election against President Joe Biden if it were to hinge on key battleground states, new polling data suggests otherwise.

Recent surveys from reputable sources like The New York Times, CNN, CBS News and Emerson College reveal Trump’s edge over Biden nationally and in pivotal battleground states.

The findings are causing a stir among Trump’s Republican adversaries, who have long argued against his ability to win a general election. On Saturday, The Hill reported on how this turn of events could influence the political tactics of other GOP contenders.

For example, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (R) has built her campaign on the electability argument, asserting that Trump cannot secure a general election victory. However, new polling data shows a different picture, potentially impacting her campaign’s narrative.

Likewise, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has highlighted his successful electoral record in Florida, contrasting it with Trump’s recent electoral performances.

Despite these emerging narratives, Trump’s standing in the GOP primary polls remains robust. He is leading by a substantial margin, averaging nearly 60 percentage points, as per RealClearPolitics.

This commanding lead is consistent across state-level polls, where he has outpaced DeSantis, Haley and other potential rivals.

Conversely, the Biden camp and its supporters have urged caution when interpreting these early polls, pointing to the unpredictability of election results. They cited the 2022 midterms and recent state elections where Democrats exceeded expectations as examples. 

Biden is facing low approval rating of 37% according to the Gallup Poll. 

Within a 60-year span of the Oval Office, the late former President George H.W. Bush had a 64% approval rating in his third year in office. Bush was voted out of office in the 1992.

Former President Bill Clinton had a 48% approval rating in his third year of office, but was re-elected for a second term.

Former President Jimmy Carter faced a 31% approval rating as he was voted out of office in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected.

Trump had a 40% approval rating in his third year in office before he was voted out in 2020. 

His impending legal challenges in New York, Georgia, Washington, D.C. and Florida could also sway public opinion, especially if they result in convictions.

The former president is expected to have a hefty campaign and court schedule in 2024.

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