Arizona Senate Race: Gallego Leads As Likely Democrat, Lake Trails In Polls‌ ‌

Ruben Gallego (D), Kari Lake (R), and Eduardo Quintana (G) are running in the general election for the United States Senate in Arizona on Nov. 5, 2024.

As of Sept. 10, 2024, the five most recent polls Ballotpedia tracked include two showing Gallego with a lead outside the margin of error—one showing him up 56%–41% with a 3.0% margin of error and one showing him up 47%–40% with a 3.1% margin of error. Two polls showed Gallego with an apparent lead—one showing him up 49%–42% with a 3.6% margin of error and one showing him up 49%–45% with a 3.0% margin of error.

A fifth poll showed the two about even, with Gallego at 47% and Lake at 44% with a 4.8% margin of error. Gallego has raised $32,349,690, and Lake has raised $10,371,320. As of the same date, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill viewed the election as Likely Democratic. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated it as Lean Democratic, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales believed it was Tilt Democratic.

Gallego is a member of the U.S. House, a former state legislator, and a U.S. Marine Corps veteran. Gallego says he is running “to defend our Democracy, hold corrupt politicians accountable, and preserve a woman’s right to have an abortion.” Gallego says he “took advantage of the things Democrats championed and the people of our country provided: Pell Grants and school lunch programs, to name two,” and that he says his political and military service was an opportunity to repay that debt.

Lake is a former newscaster who ran for governor in 2022. Lake says she believes in “secure borders, energy independence, safe streets, education not indoctrination, pushing back against the radical Biden agenda, and preserving the western heritage that makes Arizona special.” Lake says she is running because of “a socialist Democrat Party that has lost touch with reality, a corrupt president who has lost touch with his brain, and we’re sick of the swamp putting the rest of the world first.”

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2025.

Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four. As of May 2024, eight members of the U.S. Senate had announced they were not running for re-election.

Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (Independent) is not running for re-election. This is one of eight open U.S. Senate races in 2024 where an incumbent is not running for re-election. Across the country, four Democrats, two Republicans, and two Independents are not running for re-election. In 2022, six Senators, including one Democrat and five Republicans, did not seek re-election.

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