Trump Posts Chart Claiming Oil Back to Pre-War Levels After Hormuz Shutdown
Trump shares an unattributed infographic asserting a full recovery in oil supply following a Strait of Hormuz closure.
WASHINGTON D.C. — Donald J. Trump posted a political infographic claiming oil has returned to pre-war levels following a disruption at the Strait of Hormuz.
The chart, branded with eagle emblems bearing the numbers 45 and 47 in reference to Trump’s presidential terms, depicts a line graph spanning February through November. The y-axis scales from zero to 30 with no unit of measurement identified. Oil levels start near 24 to 25 in February and March, matching what the chart labels the “2025 average level,” before plunging to roughly seven or eight after a point marked “Hormuz shuts” in late March. The line recovers gradually through May and June, returning to approximately 24 to 25 by July and holding near that range through October. Green text reading “100%” appears on the right side, suggesting a complete recovery.
The graphic carries no attribution to a government agency, industry group, or research institution. Trump presented the recovery as a fait accompli, but the chart’s branding ties the claimed outcome directly to his administration without citing independent verification.
Here is the full post on truthsocial: “Oil is at PRE-WAR LEVELS! 2025 average level Hormuz shuts FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV” on October 7, 2026 at 11:54 PM ET.
This is Trump’s 15th message released today, and the last post was 27 minutes ago, and it is not part of a thread. On average, Trump produces 18 posts per day since his inauguration on January 20, 2025. The move fits a broader pattern in Trump’s recent messaging, with 30 of his 534 posts over the last 30 days classified as Economy posts.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, serves as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. A closure would affect tanker traffic carrying a significant share of globally traded crude oil and liquefied natural gas. The graphic implies such a closure occurred and that supply has since normalized, though Trump did not specify the nature of the conflict referenced by “pre-war levels.”
A disruption of oil flows through the strait would directly affect gasoline and energy prices for American consumers and businesses. Fuel costs ripple through supply chains, influencing the price of food, manufactured goods, and transportation. A full recovery, if confirmed, would ease those cost pressures.
No independent source in the available record confirms the specific data points Trump presented or the timeline of the disruption and recovery. The next scheduled release of global oil market data from major reporting agencies has not been specified in connection with this post.
Zenger analysis
Photo by Zenger analysis
Protomaps / Natural Earth – Iran
Photo by Protomaps / Natural Earth – Iran
Protomaps / Natural Earth – Oman
Photo by Protomaps / Natural Earth – Oman
President Trump is the author of Trump: The Art of the Deal, Trump: Think Like a Billionaire: Everything You Need to Know About Success, Real Estate, and Life, and Think Big: Make It Happen in Business and Life. Analyst and Trump supporter Rod Martin points to The Art of the Deal, Trump's 1987 book, as an explanation of his deal-making philosophy: making big announcements, pivoting often in public statements and, Martin says, ultimately getting what he wanted all along. Critics contend that Trump's books were published decades ago or were aimed at making money, not shedding light. "Generally," Martin said, "critics don't read The Art of the Deal. If they did, they would understand."